WR - Another look at peak oil... Hubbarts Curve...

06-12-2008, 09:27 PM

ddoubleez

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Another look at peak oil... Hubbarts Curve...

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Quote:

Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum production is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. If global consumption is not mitigated before the peak, a world energy crisis may develop because the availability of conventional oil will drop and prices will rise, perhaps dramatically. M. King Hubbert first used the theory in 1956 to accurately predict that United States oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970. His logistic model, now called Hubbert peak theory, has since been used to predict the peak petroleum production of many other countries, and has also proved useful in other limited-resource production-domains. According to the Hubbert model, the production rate of a limited resource will follow a roughly symmetrical bell-shaped curve based on the limits of exploitability and market pressures.

Little known facts, the demand of oil grows Exponentially...

Oil production in 33 out of 48 out countries has now peaked, including Kuwait, Russia and Mexico. Global oil production is now also approaching an all time peak and can potentially end our Industrial Civilization. The most distinguished and prominent geologists, oil industry experts, energy analysts and organizations all agree that big trouble is brewing.

http://www.dieoff.org/42Countries/42Countries.htm

But what about the places we can not drill?

Quote:

It is now widely acknowledged by the world's leading petroleum geologists that more than 95 percent of all recoverable oil has now been found. We therefore know, within a reasonable degree of certainty, the total amount of oil available to us.

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06-13-2008, 04:52 AM	#2
Car Enthusiast how long can I hold out Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Columbus Posts: 3,558/1.96 Threads: 83 Friends Network Gold Member	Re: Another look at peak oil... Hubbarts Curve... yahwn oil will not end our industrial lifestyle whatever point you are trying to make, you are not making it

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06-13-2008, 07:18 AM	#3
one_oh_one whore Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: magicland, magicstate Posts: 124/0.44 Threads: 4 Friends Network	Re: Another look at peak oil... Hubbarts Curve... interesting.....

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06-13-2008, 07:08 PM	#4
*Juan.©amaney* Groin Grabbingly Good Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: North Mexico . . . Penis Size: Python Posts: 17,619/8.09 Threads: 512 Friends Network	Re: Another look at peak oil... Hubbarts Curve... A problem I have with this theory is that the price of oil escalating is blamed on the increase in demand. So basically, since demand has been incresing yearly, and the production has to be upped, how can that mean that we have reached the peak?
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06-13-2008, 08:44 PM

ddoubleez

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Re: Another look at peak oil... Hubbarts Curve...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Juan.©amaney

A problem I have with this theory is that the price of oil escalating is blamed on the increase in demand. So basically, since demand has been incresing yearly, and the production has to be upped, how can that mean that we have reached the peak?

The peak that we are speaking of is that physics or nature has instilled a limit on the speed of extraction....

This brings up a very good point to a fantastic question....

Our demand has rose, but for the past four years the production has not increased.....

You may say, well how is that possible, if demand has increased you have to increase production, right.....

Answer: Not if you have been operating in with a surplus in the past... You just have less and less of a surplus... The supply end has not changed but the demand has increased, faster than ever before in history.... This is why the price is increasing at such a fantastic rate.... This is the law of supply and demand trying to controll consumption.... The fatal flaw is, however, that we need a minimum to run and grow an economy, NO MATTER THE PRICE, and when the minimum is not met, we enter a new era for mankind....

This is were we have to ask ourselves if we have prepaired for a transition or have we been waiting for the transition to deal with us....

The term in the industry is called producing flat out....

here is a yahoo search for oil production flat out, there are 1.6 million hits, choose one or many to read:

http://search.yahoo.com/search;_ylt...v8-sbc&ei=UTF-8

Rep for Juan for the fantastic question

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06-13-2008, 08:50 PM

ddoubleez

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Re: Another look at peak oil... Hubbarts Curve...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Car Enthusiast

yahwn

oil will not end our industrial lifestyle

whatever point you are trying to make, you are not making it

I would argue that it is already started.... How often did you say you are racing now? How often will it be when 93 octane is 10 per gallon and you are rationing your fuel and carpooling w/ your neighbor for a trip to the grocery store that may be twice or even ten the cost it is now. How long will it be, before you can not send a letter more than 3 days a week... Who will be doing international business with it costs 5k to fly to china... Where will you get your goods when walmart can not afford the price it will cost to move goods across the ocean and move an empty boat back?

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06-17-2008, 07:03 AM	#7
Car Enthusiast how long can I hold out Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Columbus Posts: 3,558/1.96 Threads: 83 Friends Network Gold Member	Re: Another look at peak oil... Hubbarts Curve... now I haven't seen a replacement for the jet turbines, but there are alternatives to land travel already there, I just hope people are smart enough to make the switch before it gets to that point where it is too expensive to commute. Also there are already replacement for any maritime engine that is needed. me instead of waiting to get a 4 door luxury car I am going to wait until the volt comes out if it ends up doing what they say it will do hopefully just for a commuter

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06-17-2008, 05:14 PM	#8
fmb bitch Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: SC Posts: 2,435/3.36 Threads: 73 Friends Network	Re: Another look at peak oil... Hubbarts Curve... Deez: I noticed where you say 95% of oil has been found and the quantity of this available oil is known. You must remember not all of this known oil has been extracted. Some is locked up in oil shale, some may reside in deep waters to costly to get too right now, others are held up for environmental reasons. With the cost of oil rising, it may be more economical now to get at reserves which were too costly to extract when oil was $22-$60 per barrel. In addition, technology isn't readily available for mass production and support of hybrid and/or electric cars. Anyway, the electricity has to be generated somehow, by some method; most likely, the generation method will involve natural gas. I think a long term, balanced, energy policy is a must. Reduce the demand (yes, prices will be high), utilize proven concepts (nuclear, but don't get me started), and development the technological capability to use more natural generation methods, such as solar, wind, and maybe tides. This will take some generations to become sustainable, but there is absolutely no short term fix to the current problem.

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06-18-2008, 03:09 PM

ddoubleez

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Re: Another look at peak oil... Hubbarts Curve...

Quote:

Originally Posted by fmb

Deez: I noticed where you say 95% of oil has been found and the quantity of this available oil is known. You must remember not all of this known oil has been extracted. Some is locked up in oil shale, some may reside in deep waters to costly to get too right now, others are held up for environmental reasons.

With the cost of oil rising, it may be more economical now to get at reserves which were too costly to extract when oil was $22-$60 per barrel. In addition, technology isn't readily available for mass production and support of hybrid and/or electric cars. Anyway, the electricity has to be generated somehow, by some method; most likely, the generation method will involve natural gas.

I think a long term, balanced, energy policy is a must. Reduce the demand (yes, prices will be high), utilize proven concepts (nuclear, but don't get me started), and development the technological capability to use more natural generation methods, such as solar, wind, and maybe tides.

This will take some generations to become sustainable, but there is absolutely no short term fix to the current problem.

Tar sands and shale oil are very different than drilling and allowing a liquid to flow though a pipe...

Tar sands and shale oil are more like mining than drilling... There is no way that we can extract it at 1000th of the speed we can oil... We will never be able to produce the 90 million barrels we need today by doing this.. So it is great that is is there, but it would take 250 years to extract it, and I do not think you want to wait.... And the waste from these operations can be seen from outerspace, there is no answer, yet, on where we will put all the waste water...

Nuclear is only a stop gap or a bridge... If we were to go to the 150 power plants we need for house hold and commercial energy, it would take 10 to 20 years that we do not have to come on line, then we have about 25 years of uranium at that rate of use.... I also have mentioned that these plants need water to cool them and the majority would have to be on the coast, and how do you plan to engineer the coastlines moving with the ice caps melting? These plants have to stay at a spacific depth and will not tolerate major sea level change, and thus no one will invest....

You mentioned natrual gas.... I plan on starting a thread on that in a day or two.... North america is out of natural gas.... This is refered to north american natural gas cliff... We are in a much worse situations with natrual gas than crude....

Quote:

Natural gas consists mostly of methane. Conventional natural gas is found in underground formations of porous rock, and conventional, easy sources of NG in the U.S. peaked in 1973. To keep up with demand, we are now frantically drilling and keeping our supply heads above water with a combination of shale gas, tight gas(from non-porous rock formations), deep gas (from wells over 15,000 feet in depth), sub-sea gas, and coalbed methane gas. These “unconventional” sources all require more risk and capital for extraction. Nearly 20% of U.S. demand is filled with imports from Canada through our existing pipeline system and to a much lessor extent via imports of liquid natural gas (LNG) from Trinidad and Tobago.

And we do not have generations to work on this, by 2020, if it is not already, it will be glaringly obvious that we squandered all our energy and time to get us out of this..........

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06-18-2008, 07:50 PM	#10
fmb bitch Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: SC Posts: 2,435/3.36 Threads: 73 Friends Network	Re: Another look at peak oil... Hubbarts Curve... Deez: true, much of our remaining oil will be hard to get at. Too little time to wait? We have no choice; the available technology to mass produce electricity from solar and wind isn't there. Nuclear is not the only answer, it's just a stop gap to buy time for other technologies to mature. Hell, for my first car (1986) I looked into building an electric car from plans in Popular Mechanics. Back then, the limiting factor and reason I didn't build the car was battery technology. Today, the limiting factor in electric cars is battery technology. Again, technology hasn't made the jump we are now searching for. There is no silver bullet; any real solution will not be available for generations.

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06-22-2008, 11:22 AM

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Re: Another look at peak oil... Hubbarts Curve...

Just a note from an article today, Saudi Arabia is going to increase Production again, and this is one comment from the King.

Quote:

"There are several factors behind the unjustified, swift rise in oil prices and they are: Speculators who play the market out of selfish interests, increased consumption by several developing economies and additional taxes on oil in several consuming countries," the king said.

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06-23-2008, 07:08 PM

#12

ddoubleez

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Re: Another look at peak oil... Hubbarts Curve...

Quote:

Originally Posted by joerockhead

Just a note from an article today, Saudi Arabia is going to increase Production again, and this is one comment from the King.

Quote:

Executive Summary
Saudi Aramco has effectively used propaganda methods for at least the last fifteen years to convince many governments, corporations and individuals to believe their statements. However, Aramco’s statement that it is the world’s leading oil producer is now false as it now second after Russia since 2006. Nevertheless, Saudi Aramco’s repeated statement about remaining recoverable oil reserves being 260 billion barrels (Gb) is still generally accepted.

In 2004, Saudi Aramco stated that its oil initially in place (OIIP) has been growing steadily since 1982. There is considerable doubt about the validity of this increase, given the lack of new oil discoveries and the unusual nature of its steady continuous increase. Aramco stated the OIIP was 700 Gb at year end 2003 while a more realistic estimate is 580 Gb.

Aramco may have some high recovery factor fields such as Abqaiq and Shaybah, but an average recovery factor range from 30-37% is assumed for the total OIIP in Saudi Arabia’s fields. The trend of the recovery factor for Saudi Aramco indicates that there has been no effect on the recovery factor by recent technological advances in producing wells. Saudi Aramco has kept remaining recoverable crude oil reserves constant simply by artificially increasing the OIIP each year since 1982, accompanied by an unrealistically high average recovery factor of 52% since 1988.

Saudi Aramco’s propaganda campaign is failing. Saudi Aramco is no longer the world’s leading crude oil producer. Saudi Aramco’s statement of 260 billion barrels of remaining recoverable reserves is almost certainly false. Instead, the remaining recoverable crude oil reserves are probably less than 100 Gb, instead of 260 Gb. It is time to call on Saudi Aramco and the other OPEC members to tell the truth about their reserves.

http://i129.photobucket.com/albums/...ce11/sares4.gif

http://peakwatch.typepad.com/

Saudi Arabian oil declines 8% in 2006:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2325

http://trendlines.ca/ksa.htm

Bloomburg interviews matt simmons again on saudi arabia:

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06-23-2008, 07:51 PM

#13

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Re: Another look at peak oil... Hubbarts Curve...

Also read this today:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...8061702010.html

Quote:

We all know that gasoline is at $4 a gallon and that oil is at $135 a barrel. But if you think that's the end of the story, don't talk to economist Jeffrey Rubin of CIBC World Markets. By Rubin's reckoning, we've barely passed the halfway point on a steady march upward that will take gasoline to $7 a gallon and oil to $225 by 2012. Despite fluctuations, the underlying rise, he says, will have pervasive and surprising side effects. Among them:

· U.S. manufacturers benefit, because rising ocean-freight costs -- reflecting fuel prices -- make imports more expensive. Some production returns to the United States, and some shifts from Asia to closer exporters (Mexico over China). Since 2000, estimates Rubin, the cost of shipping a 40-foot container from East Asia has gone from $3,000 to $8,000. With oil at $200 a barrel, the shipping cost would be $15,000.

· Inflation becomes more stubborn. For years, the Federal Reserve has focused on "core inflation" -- prices minus energy and food. The justification is that large food and energy price changes usually reverse themselves. But if they move steadily higher, that logic collapses. "While core inflation may be barely over 2 percent, that's only of solace if you don't eat or drive," Rubin says. Overall inflation is twice that, about 4 percent.

· Two distressed industries -- homebuilding and autos -- suffer further. "In two years, there will be fewer Americans driving," he says. Higher gasoline prices push people into mass transit and car pools. Home prices take another hit, especially in distant suburbs with long commutes. "People won't be able to afford what they used to afford," he says.

Do not underestimate oil's fallout. The world may have arrived at Peak Oil, when dwindling oil reserves no longer permit much annual increase in production. This may not be literally true; estimates of vast undiscovered oil reservoirs imply that Peak Oil is decades away. But governments that control 75 percent or more of known reserves are behaving as if Peak Oil is already here. They're hoarding a scarce commodity by limiting new exploration. Meanwhile, production at some old fields is dropping rapidly. Spare capacity has been depleted as demand outruns new supply.

High prices close the gap. The grim price outlook by Rubin and others presumes that this situation persists. Of course, they could be wrong if higher prices cause demand to drop sharply and supplies increase unexpectedly. Saudi Arabia recently signaled a modest production increase. In the United States, prices have already led to less driving. In March, highway travel was down 4.3 percent from a year earlier. Buying patterns for autos have shifted. Through May, sales of sport-utility vehicles dropped 31 percent from a year earlier, reports WardsAuto.com. Oil demand is also stagnating in Europe and Japan.

But higher demand from developing countries and oil producers is offsetting the lower demand of wealthy countries. Consumption in these countries will rise 3 percent in 2008, projects the International Energy Agency.

There's been a huge transfer of power to oil producers. Even at $100 a barrel, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates will earn almost $8 trillion in oil revenue between now and 2020, estimates the McKinsey Global Institute. More troubling are the political implications. "This has really strengthened the Iranians, Russians and Venezuelans to be more provocative in the world," says Larry Goldstein of the Energy Policy Research Foundation. Although governments control crude supplies, private companies have dominated distribution. Anyone can buy oil at a price. Now oil could become a political commodity offered to friends at a discount, withheld from rivals.

How can we retrieve some of our lost power? The first thing is to get out of denial. Stop blaming oil companies and "speculators." Next, we need to expand domestic oil and natural gas drilling, including in Alaska. Although we can't "drill our way" out of this problem, we can augment oil supplies and lessen price strains. It might take 10 years or more, because new projects are huge undertakings. But delay will only aggravate our future problems.

Finally, we need to realize that high prices may stimulate new biofuels from wood chips, food waste and switch grass. Production costs of these fuels may be in the range of $1 a gallon, says David Cole of the Center for Automotive Research. If true, that's well below today's wholesale gasoline prices. To assure new producers that they wouldn't be wiped out if oil prices plunged, we should set a floor price for oil of $50 to $80 a barrel, says Cole. This could be done with a standby tariff that would activate only if prices hit the threshold. Oil prices are unpredictable, and should a price collapse occur, Americans wouldn't be deluded into thinking we've returned permanently to cheap energy. We've made that mistake before.

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06-23-2008, 11:03 PM	#14
fmb bitch Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: SC Posts: 2,435/3.36 Threads: 73 Friends Network	Re: Another look at peak oil... Hubbarts Curve... Juan: thanks for posting an article with some sanity. Hell, this one has it all: keep prices high to provide incentives for alternative energy, expand our drilling as a crutch measure, points out the increased power oil producing countries have gained, and hints at some production jobs returning to our country. This isn't going to go away.