93crawler

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I don't think he stands a chance against Obama in the fall, and apparently, many Republicans think the same way. Here's the article, what do you think?

GOP Insiders Worry About McCain's Chances

June 8, 2008 07:13 PM

For four months John McCain had a clear field while Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton were at each other's throats. Given the opportunity, the Arizona Senator failed to define the debate in favorable terms, spending much of the valuable primary months defending himself on charges that his campaign staff was top heavy with lobbyists.

Conversely, McCain has so far eluded the anti-Republican tidal wave that threatens to sweep away the party's candidates at every level, from county councils to the U.S. Senate. Amid the early wreckage -- GOP partisan identification in the tank, three defeats in rock-solid GOP House districts, and the National Republican Senatorial and Congressional Committees scratching for cash -- McCain stands competitive with Obama in national polls, running just 2.5 points behind.

The McCain campaign to date lends itself to contradictory assessments. The odds makers are leaning decisively in Obama's favor but McCain is not out of the running.

Rick Davis, McCain's campaign manager, has posted a PowerPoint study asserting that McCain currently hold slight leads in Wisconsin, Michigan, Missouri and Nevada, and that Ohio is "a dead heat" and that Pennsylvania could go Republican. "This is a very good position for our campaign to be in," Davis contends

In fact, the survey data is not as favorable as Davis claims - Obama leads in all five of the most recent Pennsylvania polls by an average of 5.8 points, and he leads in Wisconsin by 2 points. Polling in the 19 states identified by RealClearPolitics as battlegrounds shows Obama in a better position than McCain, ahead in such Bush '04 states as Colorado and Iowa, and running very close in Virginia, New Mexico and Nevada.

In addition, the data on RealClearPolitics dispute another of Davis' claims --- that McCain has stronger favorable/unfavorable ratings than Obama. Instead, the recent average for McCain is 47.3 favorable to 40.8 unfavorable, or a +6.5; for Obama, it's 50.3 to 38.5, or +11.8 .

In not-for-attribution interviews, a number of Republicans were neither optimistic about his chances nor positive in their assessment of his campaign so far.

"I think we've got a world of problems," said one Republican strategist with extensive experience in presidential campaigns. He said this came home to him with a thud when he watched Obama and McCain give speeches last Tuesday, with the Democrat speaking before "20,000 screaming fans, while John McCain looked every bit of his 72 years" in a speech televised from New Orleans. This Republican cited the liberal blogger Atrios' description of McCain's speech with a green backdrop that made McCain "look like the cottage cheese in a lime Jell-O salad."

For McCain to stand a chance of winning, the operative contended, the campaign, the Republican National Committee, or an independent group will have to finance sustained negative ads developing a broad assault on Obama's credibility as a national leader at a time of terrorist threat. McCain, however, has gone out of his way to aggressively discourage such activity, the operative pointed out, which, he argued, may kill McCain's chances.

Another strategist with similar presidential experience said "McCain has not claimed the maverick ground that should be his. He has not seized the mantle of 'change' and reform that he could own by going to Washington and saying, 'you know me. You know I've been a reformer all my life. Now, here's how I am going to change Washington if you elect me president.' And he has not taken economic turf. He has not explained how he is going to grow, not Washington, as the Democrats plan, but this economy to meet the challenges of global competition."

Earlier this year, Rich Lowry, editor of the National Review, wrote:

McCain is an America nationalist and progressive reformer in the tradition of Teddy Roosevelt, but the real consistent line throughout his career is a belief in his own righteousness. This can lead him to great prescience, as on the surge; foolhardy lack of proportion, as on his crusade for campaign-finance reform; and party-splitting, self-destructive stubbornness, as on immigration reform. If Republicans pick him, he won't be the safe, known quantity they usually look for in a next-in-line nominee, but a go-it-alone politician, unpredictable except for the courage and irascibility he'll bring to whatever he does.

Asked what he thinks of the McCain campaign so far, Lowry replied:

I'd say middling. But he's always going to have an enthusiasm, money, and charisma gap. The question is whether he can make up what might well be a solid Obama lead throughout the summer in the fall when people really focus on Obama... Probably the most important development in this period was McCain's embrace of the theme of reform, which I hope won't be jettisoned amid the critical reviews of the delivery and presentation of his New Orleans speech.

Tom Mann of the Brookings Institution argues that "McCain continues to embrace Bush policies on the most important issues, relying on a reputation for independence and moderation that could be lost in the heat of battle with Obama and the Democrats.... At the end of this long interlude, the only rationale for his election that has emerged is that Obama cannot be trusted to lead the country at a time of great danger because he is too inexperienced, naïve, liberal, elitist, and out of touch with American values. 'Elect me because the other guy is worse.' Not much of an argument in the face of gale-force winds blowing against the Republican Party."

Along similar lines, Norman Ornstein, of the American Enterprise Institute, questioned whether McCain and his aides have "spent enough time and effort developing themes for why he should be president, not just why Obama should not-- especially themes that address the deep-seated anxiety voters feel that goes beyond current economic conditions."

Arch-conservative Bay Buchanan suggested that it may not matter what McCain does. Writing in Human Events on June 4, she declared:

In reality there is only one candidate. Barack Obama. In November he will win or he will lose. John McCain is relevant only in so far as he is not Barack Obama. The Senator from Arizona is incapable of energizing his party, brings no new people to the polls, and has a personality that is best kept under wraps.

fmb

I like the guy, but I think his choice of campaign staff and their chosen path forward leaves so much to be desired. He had lots of opportunity to distinguish himself while the dems were tossing things back and forth. He blew it. He will not get back those months.

If he can't get on his feet and move forward, there's no reason to have a campaign.

Krasch

And of course the GOP insiders are worried about his chances because he's a maverick, and not really one of THEM.

If he was a traditional Republican at this point, Obama would win hands down. The only reason the GOP has a chance is because McCain ain't your ordinary Republican candidate. But I do agree he needs to better promote a message of exactly why people should be voting FOR him, and not because the other guy is worse.

LOCOprobe

its becauseof all the bandwagon hype over obama and getting a democrat in office that mcaine doesnt stand a chance.

luckily most of these idiots that buy into the hype dont vote and level headed americans (which are getting harder and harder to find) still vote and will vote for the right person.

same thing happend last election with everyone jumping on the kerry campaign and luckily that crack pot didnt win.

if obama wins I will either move out the country or be the one to assasinate him

LOCOprobe

see thats harder said then done. all media and everything is focused on obama and "change" so mcCain has a hard time getting any word out

Krasch

Agreed, and I wouldn't at all rule out McCain winning in November.

Regardless of what people think about Bush, Bush ain't running, and he isn't the whole Republican party. And I'm sure most level headed voters are well aware of that.

joerockhead

Obama is riding a wave of Kiss Ass Media. They report about his Churches (TWO!) that are Racist (Anti-White) and Feminist/Racist (Against Hillary and "Whites"), and then it is clearly DROPPED!!!!

Once the Media love affair is over, it will be tougher.

AS for McCain, he is NOT hard care Republican. He is more Middle, with a lot of Democrat style influences. And I think that is Huge!! I am tired of both sides being so Far to one side.

Obama WILL Raise Taxes
Obama WILL create more Government control
Obama WILL slash the Military.
USA Will Suffer!

___________________________________________


Visit the worlds best website -
www.badass67.com - Black Sunshine

BackdoorJesus

I think this election is going to be pretty close; the Democrats certainly do NOT have a lock on it, much as the sycophantic followers of the Obamessiah and their mass media shills would have us all believe.

I posted this next bit in BOTH but it went pretty much ignored, yet I think it's appropriate to reiterate here:

As an independent voter I am dismayed by the fact that lots of folks seem to think the answer to eight years of hard right politics is a period of hard left politics; the sensible person knows that the answer truly is closer to the center.

Frankly, I think that this time around the Republicans are a lot closer to that center than are the Democrats, and despite the Dems wanting to paint their opponent as a warmongering Bush term #3, I like to think that the voting public is not that obtuse (though I'm well aware I could be wrong). I can see that both viable options this year are a marked change from the last eight that we have endured, and when I have a choice for my "change", I choose what is closest to the the middle, not the far-<any> wing.

Do remember (if you're old enough) that the last time we were "fed up" and went for the "far-left" answer we got Jimmy Carter, and that winnar's pathetic 4-year term only inspired people to vote Republican for another 12 years. Oh and that 12 years could have easily been 16 years or more had Ross Perot (whom I proudly voted for) not stepped into the fray.

___________________________________________

fmb

BDJ: Amen.

JHR: A mofo' Men!!

Let's see... Two parties, two chambers, two cloak rooms to enter the chambers in.... OMG!! It's a conspiracy to keep the two party system in place and prevent a third party from ever having a significant grasp of the political controls....

Krasch

Ahhhh, but be careful what you wish for, you just might get it.

We did in Ontario.

Our 3rd Party, the ultra leftist New Democrat Party got into power for four scant years, causing much turmoil, pissing off everyone including their union constituency, economic policies that had businesses fleeing Ontario like rats on the Titanic, "Social Contracts", plummeting provincial credit rating, etc.

We booted them out of office at the first opportunity faster than George H W Bush could say "read my lips, no new taxes" (which BTW the NDP also raised taxes to some of the highest levels seen in Ontario, ever.)

CD

It was dropped because a lot of people got sick and tired of listening to that stuff. Hell, I realized within the first few weeks that his church wasn't the best, but I also realized that he probably hasn't gone there that much in the last few years. He removed himself from the church and that is that. I would have respected any candidate that did a similar denounce... too bad Bush never did that with Rove...

McCain isn't a far right Republican, but he certainly isn't middle.

1) Obama probably will raise taxes. The flip side is that McCain wouldn't and this economy would crash and burn. I'd rather pay a little more in taxes and have a good economy that provides low unemployment, low inflation, and high growth. But if you want Bushonomics and a shitty economy all around with low taxes and high spending, sooner or later, the whole system will come crashing down.

2) I'll gladly take more government control if it means that the government will actually abide by Habeas Corpus. Seriously, how can you say MORE government control when Bush pushed the Patriot Act, illegal wire tappings, Guantanamo Bay, and illegal invasion of a sovereign nation? (and don't bring up the WMDs, because that lie really needs to left outside when you enter a discussion)

3) McCain will continue the war, maybe even push for war with Iran (hello Russia... we missed having you pissed off at us) since Bush's attempts aren't going so well. This will stretch our already THIN military, possibly set up the dreaded draft, continue to pave the way for even more hostile feelings towards this country, and neuter our already hurt economy.

I write this and I'm wondering how people can be so observant of our way of life, and yet not SEE the way that life is working out.

___________________________________________

shiiboi

I'm an independent, and still undecided at this point.

But to characterize Obama as being on the far left is just nonsense. If you want to know how he thinks and his policy opinions, read his book "The Audacity of Hope." The best word to describe him is 'pragmatist.' The republicans will try to paint him with their 'tax and spend democrat' brush, but his handling of Hilary Clinton's attacks show that he is capable of deflecting those kinds of tactics.

BDJ's reference to Jimmy Carter is spot-on. Carter was an outsider who ended up being sabotaged by his own party-- and Obama is at risk of the same. Especially since the Clinton faction is waiting in the wings for him to fail. If Obama picks Hilary as his VP and wins the election, I fear for his life.

McCain is really hard to pin down at this point. His transformation from the Maverick who might choose a democrat (Lieberman) as his running mate 8 years ago to Mr. Reagan republican is odd. I think we have to wait and see how he is presented at the Republican convention to really understand what his plans are.

joerockhead

Wow, so much to comment on!!

CD - Obama Was a member of the Churches in question for YEARS!!! A strong support of both the men running them, not just a few weeks.
He had no choice but to denounce them!

Also, Obama WILL raise taxes. Capitol gains from 15% to 28%! A "Supposed" tax break to the middle income of $1,000.00. That is nothing after the Bush tax break is repealed.
As far as Paying more taxes, NO! I do not want too!! Why? Congress will just have more money to WASTE!!! CONGRESS is NEVER held accountable for their wasteful spending. THAT is more important then Raising taxes and taking MY hard earned money.

Wait, you already think that the Bush Admin has created a ton of Government control, yet you are willing to give up more??? HELL NO!!! We have too much as it is!!! Many of the programs Bush has installed should be removed! But they won't because anyone that wants to will be deemed a supporter of Terrorism. NO MORE GOVERNMENT control is needed!!

As far as War with Iran, no. We will not get into conflict unless we are provoked. McCain is no Bush, and will not be pushed in the corner. he will not just invade. Everyone knows that is a mistake. Unless we or Israel are attacked. Now, Israel may start some shit. But, if you do not show you are willing to go to War, then the enemy knows you are a pussy and afraid of War. So they have NOTHING to fear.
Obama will NEVER go to War with Iran, even if they attack Israel. And Iran knows this! Thus they will be more aggressive towards the USA and Israel. Negotiating with Iran? Sure, i have no problem getting the dialog going, as long as you are serious and understand they will provoke us. And yet, you have to still be willing to get into a War.

the only thing thin in the Military is the Army. The USAF is still mostly state side, and the Navy is easily ready to attack. A prolonged War would not be good for anyone, in any country and would cause a lot of trouble for the whole world. So, I doubt it will happen, even if McCain is in office.

I believe Obama will raise taxes.
I believe Obama will Cut the Military
I believe Obama will create more government control then we already have and more then has already been mentioned
I believe Obama would not go to War, or make a real effort to attack anyone that commits a terrorist attack against US people.

___________________________________________


Visit the worlds best website -
www.badass67.com - Black Sunshine

93crawler

McCain has got quite the easy ride, and Obama has just crossed the finish line of an incredibly drawn out, and bloody Democratic primary. I really could care less about his church shit, I know he's not a racist, or elitist, or anything else the right tries to throw at him--I think he's truly the best Democratic candidate to come about in a very long time.

McCain used to be the so called "Maverick," but that persona of McCain's has long since been tossed out the window in favor of something more appeasing to the evangelicals that the Republican candidate must always pander to. He's switched his stances on virtually everything, from taxes, to torture--somewhat ironic considering his personal situation in the past, and several other issues. McCain from eight years ago, wouldn't even know the McCain from today. The phrase, "a third Bush term" is quite accurate, as his stances all mirror what Bush is currently trying to do, or has done.

If by "Obama WILL raise taxes" I feel important by using ALL CAPS like that, yep he most certainly will repeal the tax cuts for the wealthiest 1% of Americans, and the tax code will probably more closely resemble the tax code of the 90's--which you remember, was a very prosperous time.

I have to disagree with the the cutting of the military, because of the current status of the world, and the tension between us and the Iranians, Russians, North Koreans, and other countries as well as the clusterfuck that is Iraq. I'm pretty sure that Obama wouldn't cut military funding, or the actual numbers of the military in any sense, but he would start to draw down our presence in Iraq. I did say draw down just now right, so don't jump all over my response, and say immediate withdrawl--which I, nor Obama is calling for. He will however, allow our National Guard to be the weekend warriors, and disaster responders that they were meant to be, and not young men who were never really intended to serve such extended tours of duty.

There was a poll just release within the last few days that shows that Obama is leading in every significant voting block, with the exception of working class white men. The disparities of some of the sections of the voting block were tremendous, obviously Obama is leading heavily amoung blacks, by over 80%--but he leads in every other category by at least 5%. Now I don't really care about polls, but they do offer some indication of what might be expected. The poll was taken only moments after the Democratic primary had ended. The situation is only going to get better for Obama, and worse for McCain. The Republican party in general is in serious trouble, having lost key Congressional seats in Mississippi, and two other seats.
It's expected that they will probably lose another 4 or more s