Will the people of Iran overthrow the Government!???

[mainstay]

I would have thought 3 days ago that these protests would have been put down like in China in "89". In spite of the vast number of armed police in the streets, with dozens of protesters shot dead, the numbers seems to be growing. They say 60% of the population is under 30. How will this end.....discuss, what should Pres. Obama do????? How will this effect the USA????

[mainstay]

UPDATE: 9:45 PM EDT___Protests breaking out in European cities. The protests are spreading to other cities outside of the capital of Iran. Press is stating people aren't happy with just new elections, but now want a new Government. All this despite a "blackout" of news. People using twitter to get the news out. This could be history in the making before our very eyes here!!!!

[TigerLand]

I was watching a bit of Al Jazeera about half an hour age and they had some fella on saying in all fairness the guy with the most votes won but its the amount of votes people should be more angry about as the amount stated is nowhere near right for the other fella that didnt win

[licupssy]

The big question is who is behind the fake election reports. It appears Khameini must have something to with it or Ahmadinejad has enough backing of the military and police that Khameini is afraid the religious back government may topple into a dictatorship under Ahmadinejad.

By all accounts, the Council -- half of whose members are appointed by, and loyal to, Ayatollah Ali Khameini and the other half is nominated by Iran's Parliament and approved by Khameini -- will ratify President Ahmadinejad's reelection.

The article above notes in one province that Ahmandinejad was supposed to have gotten 570,000 more votes than in 2005 which would have him win all the opposition votes plus the all the votes of the non-voters in the 2005 election.

You have to realize is that no matter who ends up winning there will be no difference in there position with the western world. If it leads to a full blown out civil war and the present government is toppled, it will probably end up as screwed up as Iraq. The greatest mistake Bush made in Iraq was that he thought the people there would jump at having a democratic style of government.

[bobburgster]

I was hoping, against all odds I think, that they would actually succeed. At this point I think it will be squashed

[joerockhead]

I was hoping, against all odds I think, that they would actually succeed. At this point I think it will be squashed

I have to agree, and since our president does not have the balls to say anything about it, they will see that we will not support their right to protest and lose faith.

[Car Enthusiast]

I don't see how Obama saying anything would help the protestors at this point

[Juan.Camaney]

Reason they don't just kill all of them is because everyone is watching. Be it on the internet, on TV, or in signs. What will they accomplish? Nothing. When it's all over with, that place will still be a shithole. The US needs to stay the fuck out of it. Obama needs to fix our fucking problems at home before he goes sticking his nose into shit that has nothing to do with us.

That's what their version of democracy is, fuck it.

[Krasch]

Reason they don't just kill all of them is because everyone is watching. Be it on the internet, on TV, or in signs. What will they accomplish? Nothing. When it's all over with, that place will still be a shithole. The US needs to stay the fuck out of it. Obama needs to fix our fucking problems at home before he goes sticking his nose into shit that has nothing to do with us.

That's what their version of democracy is, fuck it.

Also worth mentioning is the fact that other countries tend to get their noses out of joint when the US sticks it's nose into their problems. Were Obama to publicly condemn the killing of protesters, the other side would no doubt view it as yet more interference.

Better to stay out of it completely and let them work it out, or kill each other off, or whatever they end up doing.

[licupssy]

Also worth mentioning is the fact that other countries tend to get their noses out of joint when the US sticks it's nose into their problems. Were Obama to publicly condemn the killing of protesters, the other side would no doubt view it as yet more interference.

Better to stay out of it completely and let them work it out, or kill each other off, or whatever they end up doing.

These people don't want our help and if you noted yesterday they were protesting against the UK, US and Israel.

State TV said hard-line students protested outside the British Embassy in Tehran, where they burned U.S., British and Israeli flags, pelted the building with tomatoes and chanted: "Down with Britain!" and "Down with USA!" Witnesses said about 100 people took part.

Of course their government is blaming the UN, other nations and the news media as the cause of the protest.

Iran’s leadership pressed its own charges that foreign powers had meddled in its internal affairs and instigated the widespread protests. State television showed people identified as protesters saying they had been influenced by foreign news media, Reuters reported.

If the US sticks it's nose into it to far, we'll end up with another country like Iraq to waste billions on.

People are too gullible if they think anything the US says will change anything in a country like Iran.

[supersatch]

I think that we learned in the '70's that it's long way to Tehran. Though I believe that we need to take a hard human rights stance on Iran, the effort of pushing a government into second guessing itself( such as elections) is usually one followed by military force. That is something that the United States just doesn't have to hard line their points right now. Which is the reason that North Korea is taking this chance to push all of their weapons and NATO issues right now.

I think that this is the begining of the end for Iran, but I don't think that it will come out of this protest.

[licupssy]

I think that this is the begining of the end for Iran, but I don't think that it will come out of this protest.

I really wouldn't expect an end to Iran anytime soon. With gas prices going back up, the sale of oil has to be bringing back there economy to some extent.

I would expect the protest will be winding down to an end unless fighting starts breaking out in the streets. The senior clergy are calling harsh punishment and executions while Mousavi is telling his followers not to break the law and Mousavi had said he would seek permission for future protests, even though he said unfair restrictions were being imposed. He said he has been asked by the Interior Ministry to apply in person, a week in advance.

A senior Iranian cleric demanded in a nationally broadcast sermon Friday that leaders of election protests be punished harshly, with some "worthy of execution." The country's increasingly isolated opposition leader effectively ended his role in the demonstrations, saying he'll seek permits for future rallies.

Iran's ruling clergy has widened its crackdown on the opposition since the bitterly disputed June 12 presidential election, and scattered protests have replaced the initial mass gatherings.

The official Web site of opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi, his main tool of communicating with his supporters, was hacked Friday, leaving it blank, an aide said.

Mousavi has said victory was stolen from him through fraud, challenging the proclamation of hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as the winner.

Mousavi has sent mixed signals to his supporters in recent days, asking them not to break the law, while pledging not to drop his challenge of the election.

Hundreds have been detained since the vote, including journalists, academics and university students, and a special court has been set up to put them on trial.

[bobburgster]

I think Obama made the right move not coming out condemning them. He certainly doesn't need to listen to McCain et el telling him he is weak because he wasn't forcefully condemning the Iranian Govt. Hopefully he knows that on any topic if he says "sunny", the republicans will say "rainy".
He does need to concentrate on our country because American citizens are hurting. Let China get off their ass and deal with North Korea....we've got enough wars going on.

[PistolPoet]

I don't see how Obama saying anything would help the protestors at this point

It wouldn't. For those who don't understand Iran:

The protesters are the Democrats, the current government is Republicans. To each other they seem as different as night and day, but to outsiders they're really not that different. They hold a lot of the same beliefs, and one of those beliefs is that America is a dangerous meddler in Iranian politics who would subvert Iran to America's own ends (not an entirely unfair perspective).

If Obama gave vocal support to the protesters, that would be GREAT for the Iranian government. Because then they could claim the protesters were American dupes, and many of the people in Iran who are sitting on the fence would suddenly support the government.

Essentially, it would be as if Nikita Krushev had endorsed Kennedy over Nixon in the 1960 election. It would have done nothing to help Kennedy, but it would have saved Nixon's butt and quite possibly got him elected.

Reza Aslan, an Iranian-American scholar, was on the Daily Show recently and put it best: The very worst thing we could do for the protesters is to do as John McCain suggests and throw our weight behind them. We simply do not have influence in Iran, and by making gestures of support we only give Ahmadinejad ammunition to use against them.

[Krasch]

It wouldn't. For those who don't understand Iran:

The protesters are the Democrats, the current government is Republicans. To each other they seem as different as night and day, but to outsiders they're really not that different. They hold a lot of the same beliefs, and one of those beliefs is that America is a dangerous meddler in Iranian politics who would subvert Iran to America's own ends (not an entirely unfair perspective).

If Obama gave vocal support to the protesters, that would be GREAT for the Iranian government. Because then they could claim the protesters were American dupes, and many of the people in Iran who are sitting on the fence would suddenly support the government.

Essentially, it would be as if Nikita Krushev had endorsed Kennedy over Nixon in the 1960 election. It would have done nothing to help Kennedy, but it would have saved Nixon's butt and quite possibly got him elected.

Reza Aslan, an Iranian-American scholar, was on the Daily Show recently and put it best: The very worst thing we could do for the protesters is to do as John McCain suggests and throw our weight behind them. We simply do not have influence in Iran, and by making gestures of support we only give Ahmadinejad ammunition to use against them.

Well, Obama COULD express support FOR Ahmadinejad by that token if he wanted to help the protesters, if not for the fact that it would go over like a lead balloon back home.

[PistolPoet]

Well, Obama COULD express support FOR Ahmadinejad by that token if he wanted to help the protesters, if not for the fact that it would go over like a lead balloon back home.

I'm pretty sure it wouldn't work in reverse, since Ahmadinejad's people control the Iranian media. Also, I doubt anyone would believe Obama. I mean...they're Iranian, not retarded*.

But it sure would be funny.

*Which reminds me...how retarded does John McCain really think the American people are? A year ago he was bebopping about "Bomb bomb bomb Iraaaaaan!" and now he suddenly wants us to believe that he cares a whole bunch about the Iranian people? Yeah, sorry, I don't buy it. bobburgster was spot on when he said "on any topic if [Obama] says 'sunny,' the republicans will say 'rainy.'"

[mainstay]

Yeap, but you can't overlook a country of that size, with that many people in that part of the world. Looks like the little piss ants aren't giving up with the protests like most thought. It's their country, whatever happens is up to them! It's not just the Middle East, but the whole world likes to blame the USA for their problems. But, after all is said, if you asked what country would you like to go live other than your own....it's always the USA!!!

[licupssy]

The former Iranian president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani's speech Friday signals that protests in Iran will continue.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/18/world/middleeast/18iran.html?_r=1

Calling the election aftermath a “crisis,” Mr. Rafsanjani urged that restrictions on the press and on free speech be removed, in addition to seeking freedom for those detained since the election.

Mr. Rafsanjani also criticized the Guardian Council, a powerful supervisory body that looked into possible election fraud, saying it “did not use wisely the time the supreme leader gave it to investigate.”

He said he had discussed a possible solution with members of the Expediency Council and the Assembly of Experts, two powerful state institutions he leads. He said his proposal was based on two principles: that everything must be done within a legal framework; and that there must be a free and open debate.

While the details were unclear, Mr. Rafsanjani’s proposal was an implicit rebuke to Ayatollah Khamenei, who tried to close the door on the post-election turmoil in his own Friday Prayer speech in the same hall four weeks ago. Ayatollah Khamenei has long presented himself as a neutral arbiter of Iran’s political disputes, but many Iranians say his embrace of Mr. Ahmadinejad and his stern dismissal of the protests has made the supreme leader seem a more partisan figure.

As the speech ended and traditional calls to chant “Death to America” came over the loudspeaker, many in the crowd instead chanted “Death to Russia.” Many opposition supporters are angry about Russia’s quick acceptance of Mr. Ahmadinejad’s election victory.
Interesting is the fact that there is becoming more agitation with Russia than the US.

As the speech ended and traditional calls to chant “Death to America” came over the loudspeaker, many in the crowd instead chanted “Death to Russia.” Many opposition supporters are angry about Russia’s quick acceptance of Mr. Ahmadinejad’s election victory.

Another point of interest is the desire to criticize China's problem with their muslims while they condemn other countries for any involment in Iranian affairs.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/14/world/middleeast/14iran.html

Three prominent clerics criticized the Iranian authorities on Monday for failing to condemn the recent killing of Muslims in western China. Their comments often seemed aimed at the Iranian government’s own conduct during the crackdown after the disputed June 12 presidential election.

One of the clerics, Ayatollah Youssef Sanei, a reformist, drew a sardonic parallel, suggesting that Iran, which considers itself the defender of Muslims worldwide, could not criticize China’s repressive tactics while it was doing the same thing. He also said Iran’s silence was related to its commercial, military and political links with China.

“How could China suppress the Muslims so violently and seek good relations with Muslim countries, and sometimes dominate their markets?” Ayatollah Sanei wrote, in comments published on news services and reformist Web sites.

[clenny]

I suppose Obama could give vocal support to the protesters but that's all we're in a position to do. It might result in giving the government the cover they need (US meddling) to not restrain themselves and go all out in putting down the protesters. What could we honestly do to stop it? Remember Bush the Elder promised to support the Shiites after the first Gulf war and when they rebelled we didn't do anything and they were brutally slaughtered. And don't forget that Iran could unleash a lot of mayhem via its proxies (e.g. Hamas, Hizbollah, Quds) in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Gaza. Basically, as much as it pains me to say so, we would just be writing a check that our ass couldn't cash. Why do you think we're pussy footing around with Kim Jong-Il? We're overextended and our options are limited. The CIA can only do so much and I doubt if we've had any real covert influence in Iran in a number of years. We're probably going to end up turning our heads so the Israelis can delay the Iranian nuclear program but don't forget this will precipitate stepped up activity by Hamas and Hezbollah. I could go on but I won't...
Don't allow ideology to trump reality and pragmatism.