Is Pakistan circling the bowl?

[fmb]

Recently, Pakistan signed a peace deal and ceded large swaths of the country to Taliban control. The Taliban implemented Sharia law in the parts of the country they control. In return, the Taliban were to disarm and stop millitary activities; howevere, as with any bully, the Taliban have not put down their arms and have continued to march toward the capital.

This is creating some serious discomfort and fear around the world. Pakistan has approximately 100 nuclear weapons; Pakistan's ballistic missiles have the ability to reach as far away as Saudi Arabia. In addition, Pakistan's military favors the Taliban versus having an allegiance to the Pakistani legislature. Here is a map showing which organization has control or influence over the country:

http://www.aww-kittah-aww.com/up/files/1910/m_pak%20taliban%20map.jpg

The US can't achieve anything in Afghanistan as long as the Taliban have havens in Pakistan. You can't defeat any organization with an unlimited ability to implement the three R's: rest, recuperation, and rearming. With complete control of Pakistan, the Taliban have a much wider area to regroup; can insert themselves much deeper into civilian areas; may have access to nuclear weapons; and can continue insurgency much further into India.

What do you think our options are??

[fmb]

I'm beginning to think our options are extremely limited, if there are any options at all. The Taliban movements in Afghanistan and Pakistan are, for all practical purposes, the same organization. Much of Afghanistan outside Kabul belongs to the Taliban; the map (above) indicates the majority of Pakistan is ruled by the Taliban.

Let's see, the Taliban is/are: in control of large swaths of two, somewhat independent nations; applying basic quasi-government services (law and order) in these territories; able to operate as semi-organized military forces; have the sympathy (and religious allegiance) of Pakistans intelligence services; and may reach the point of accessing nuclear weapons.

My question: are we seeing a renewed Caliphate???

[joerockhead]

If the Taliban takes control of Islamabad, then the Weapons could easily fall into the wrong hands. They may not have the arming codes, but that would only take time.

Trouble is a brewing!

[bleh123]

They may not have the arming codes, but that would only take time.


Whose to say there are even arming codes? During the cold war, Russian nuclear submarine commanders could launch missiles at their own will.


Yah, too bad we cannot just go in with guns blazing to control the situation. Iraq and Afghanistan are literally a walk in the park if you use the simple metric of population size for easiness of controlling a country (both have 30 million versus Pakistan's 176 million).

[fmb]

Yah, too bad we cannot just go in with guns blazing to control the situation. Iraq and Afghanistan are literally a walk in the park if you use the simple metric of population size for easiness of controlling a country (both have 30 million versus Pakistan's 176 million).
Neither Afghanistan nor Pakistan could be considered a walk in the park. History has shown these two countries to be nearly impossible to maintain under singular rule. The British made several attempts to begin British rule in the Af/Pak border areas and were soundly defeated. Possibly one of the most quoted notables from the historic battles was Winston Churchill. Churchill had absolutely nothing positive to say about the peoples in those areas. Don't forget about our (USA) support of these tribes in defeating the Soviet Army during the Afghan occupation during the 1980's.

The problem then (as the problem is now) is these peoples are arbitrarily listed under the title of a single country; however, the people are made of many different tribes. Tribal allegiance trumps allegiance to flag and country for these peoples.

Truly, what can we do??

[joerockhead]

Whose to say there are even arming codes? During the cold war, Russian nuclear submarine commanders could launch missiles at their own will.


Yah, too bad we cannot just go in with guns blazing to control the situation. Iraq and Afghanistan are literally a walk in the park if you use the simple metric of population size for easiness of controlling a country (both have 30 million versus Pakistan's 176 million).

Hahaha, No they could not! I know there was word put out there that this was a fact, but I work in the industry that is closely related to that and was involved in a lot of activities related to the Soviet Navy. The Leadership did not trust the Boat Captains enough to allow them that kind of free will.

As for the current Pakistani Systems, yes, they have codes.

I would fear attacking Pakistan, they world would not tolerate that.
Not China.
Not Russia.

[Krasch]

Hahaha, No they could not! I know there was word put out there that this was a fact, but I work in the industry that is closely related to that and was involved in a lot of activities related to the Soviet Navy. The Leadership did not trust the Boat Captains enough to allow them that kind of free will.

As for the current Pakistani Systems, yes, they have codes.

I would fear attacking Pakistan, they world would not tolerate that.
Not China.
Not Russia.

Agreed, even a moderate layperson should know this.

In "The Hunt for Red October" it's pointed out in both the book and movie that there were two missile keys on the boat. One for the Captain, one for the state-lackey zampolit aka Political Officer. The captain of the boat didn't even know what his orders were until after setting sail, the zampolit did...

A work of fiction yes, but very very accurate fiction.

[fmb]

A work of fiction yes, but very very accurate fiction.

True; however, can we be sure the Pakistani's have similar security systems in place?? Hell, after giving the bastards 10 billion dollars in direct military aid and providing many billions in indirect aid, what have we received for our dollars??

The Pakistani civilian leadership refuses to recognize the awesome gains by the Taliban. If we can't trust their assessment of internal vulnerability, what can we trust?

[licupssy]

True; however, can we be sure the Pakistan's have similar security systems in place?? Hell, after giving the bastards 10 billion dollars in direct military aid and providing many billions in indirect aid, what have we received for our dollars??

The Pakistani civilian leadership refuses to recognize the awesome gains by the Taliban. If we can't trust their assessment of internal vulnerability, what can we trust?

The greatest problem I see is that the political leadership has no real control of their nuclear arsenal. The question is do we have any idea where they're stored and would we be able to extract them from Pakistan if necessary. From what I've read the Indian people are lacking in faith in the US ability to handle the situation and want their government to possibly do something about it.

I really wonder what is going to come out of Obama's meeting today. The problem I see is you're dealing with people who are stuck in the mental state of the crusades with the use of modern day weaponry. The only real solution is annihilation of the Taliban which would most likely cause the death of many innocent people. The only other possibility would be the creation of another Gitmo in Pakistan to keep the Taliban under lock and key.

Interesting Video: rtsp://media1.abc.net.au/reallibrary/lateline/200905/20090505-late-talibannukes_16_9_bband.rm

[bleh123]

The only real solution is annihilation of the Taliban which would most likely cause the death of many innocent people. The only other possibility would be the creation of another Gitmo in Pakistan to keep the Taliban under lock and key.



Kill one Taliban, even without killing "too many" innocents, and that will cause 10 more to take their place. There's unfortunately not much we can do, except maybe super-technology that can detect hidden terrorist in crowds and nukes from a hundred miles (fanciful at best).

[licupssy]

Kill one Taliban, even without killing "too many" innocents, and that will cause 10 more to take their place. There's unfortunately not much we can do, except maybe super-technology that can detect hidden terrorist in crowds and nukes from a hundred miles (fanciful at best).

Looks like Obama is hoping Afganistan and Pakistan will do the dirty work for us.

[dan18apple]

It is amazing how people in West know little about Pakistan. The country is essentially moderate by nature as opposed to Iran, which is extremist. The nuclear weapon are under the controlled of the Pakistan Military command and control system, so isn't a problem of it falling into hands of idiots. The Government of Pakistan and the Pakistan military have the political high ground compared to the militants who are quicky losing support among ordinary pakistani's. As for giving up control of areas to the militants, this is a nonsense, the Government of Pakistan has always recognised the autonomous nature of tribes to self-govern themselves, as long as they don't threaten or abuse the State.

More people die from some senseless violence in the United States, whether it criminal or drug related in a month compared to Pakistan. I don't hear any one saying, oh we should send foreign troops in the United States, because the police there can't handle and prevent the wave of violence or can't handle the drug cartels.

That part of the world has defeated, the armies of Alexander the Great ,British Empire and The Soviets. The United States who military lost Korea, Vietnam and now Iraq and Afghanistan have the nerve to question the fighting capability of the Pakistan Army who during within 5 years militarily defeated the Soviets during the Soviet-Afghan conflict, before President Reagan decided to provide military weapons to Pakistan (the stingers,etc).

The United States was willing sacrifice numerous special forces guys in full denial black operations in Eastern Europe and the Vietnam conflict (including Laos and Cambodia), but didn't even sacrifice one single soldier during the soviet-afghan conflict, and now claims to have won the Cold War.

People in that part of the world solve their own problems, and they don't accept foreign aggression or foreign political coercion. The history proves it, although western historians and political analysts refuse to accept it.

People should stop listening to doomsayers who are ignorant of world and are scaring crap out of everyone, everyone must get back to working and solve their own problems, instead wasting tax payers money on wasteful foreign wars at a time of economic crisis, when people need jobs and industry.

[fmb]

It is amazing how people in West know little about Pakistan. The country is essentially moderate by nature as opposed to Iran, which is extremist. The nuclear weapon are under the controlled of the Pakistan Military command and control system, so isn't a problem of it falling into hands of idiots. The Government of Pakistan and the Pakistan military have the political high ground compared to the militants who are quicky losing support among ordinary pakistani's. As for giving up control of areas to the militants, this is a nonsense, the Government of Pakistan has always recognised the autonomous nature of tribes to self-govern themselves, as long as they don't threaten or abuse the State.

Pakistan is a very complex country, even if western standards visualize Pakistan as composed of simple tribes. Prior to a surge in Taliban violence in areas outside the FATA, there have been very few internal issues facing the Pakistani government. Personally, I believe if the government falls, it's their own fault. The intelligence services created the Taliban and many other extremist, religous, fundamental organizations in an attempt to influence governments in Afghanistan and India.

I've read your posts in this and other threads. You appear to have a much better than average knowledge of issues in Southwest Asia. Are you from there? I noticed some problems with your written english; however, these "problems" are easily faked. Most people with english as a second (or third) language have difficulty with subject/verb agreement. You may miss a word or two ( example, prepositions), but you have the verb placement in the proper spot.

Thanks for you input and posts in this, and other, threads!

[dan18apple]

Pakistan or the Moghul state has always been moderate in nature, even more tolerate and moderate than Western Europeans or the United States regarding religion. Something westerner's have a great difficulty stomaching, because it goes against their high sense of superiority.I always joke with friends about western countries about religious tolerance, because Alexander the Greats religion has been wipe out in Macedonia it homeland, yet its living and breathing in Pakistan. You can take a tour guide a meet the descendants of Alexander the Greats army. In asia most people don't argue over religion like Europeans, for one thing there are just too many religions running around asia.

Take for example Japan, they got so many wierd different religious sect of buddhism i now understand why Japanese are so divided politically and a possible reason why the ultra right-wing politicians hijack japanese politics. Don't overlook this country has nuclear weapons and has the 4th Largest navy in the world. A fews year back the Japanese police force had to deal with a wierd buddhist sect that released lethal gas killing numerous people on the Tokyo Subway. I know what your saying, they were just a one off example, no this crazy group was just a tip of the iceberg. Japan is not a moderately tolerate religious nation when you examine it carefully. It is incredibly extremist if you compare it to China.

It is important not to use the word "fundamentalism" with a negative connotation or "moderate" with a positive because from a pakistani perspective they are considered one of the same thing. It is a western thing to talk about Islamic fundamentalism as a bad thing which not surprising fan the flames among most muslims giving moral support to silly unconstructive violent groups in Pakistan who although have sympathy among most people, fortunately they don't have political support, simply because they havenot come up with any useful policies to implement and gain firm political support among ordinary pakistani.

The United States and NATO don't help the situation by killing innocent civilians in the border region. It didnot help in the beginning of the Afghan conflict that US special force kill teams went into the local villages terminating the local populous, killing women,old people and children when establishing the base US bases at Kandahar and Bagram. This now created a murky picture of no one really knowing who is attacking the NATO forces, is it piss off relatives, bandits or is it the tribes or is it the Taliban. Avenging the death of a relative is everything in Afghanistan. Unfortunately because Afghan and Pakistanis are ethnically the same, they have tribes that live on both sides of the border area, and let me be honest about it both have a deep hatred of western foreign imposition at a very basic level which has made the political violence of Afghanistan spill over into Pakistan.