Let's Bet (not) on the college bowl games! Please pick your winners!

[michaeljohn]

I don't gamble on sports. It requires too much effort and I am bored with sports and don't follow them close enough to be effective at it. However, a good handicapper can pick and choose his/her spots and be successful....

I mentioned in another thread to take the points in every game. No participation in it, so I lost interest. I will make my own handicaps, and keep track of what straight underdog bets do also keep track in the end what the $ profit or loss would be with either system.

Keep in mind, point spreads aren't in place to trick anyone, they are set to attract an equal amount of bets so the house makes its 10% juice on the losing bets.

Ok, I will take the major bowls left on the schedule (skipping the International and GMAC bowls), starting on New Years' Day. My picks in bold.

Outback Bowl, Tampa FL: Tennessee - 2 vs. Wisconsin
The Vols played a tougher schedule than Wisconsin did, and as I have said many times, the Big 10 is overrated.
The southern venue favors Tennessee.

Cotton Bowl, Dallas, TX: Missouri - 4 vs. Arkansas
Missouri had their shot and fell apart in the end. Arkansas has an LSU win under it's belt.

Capital One Bowl, Tampa FL: Florida - 10.5 vs. Michigan
Last year, Florida was the national champ. Michigan was a pretender. Both teams are weaker than last year, but Florida will prove the South is better than the North East, Besides, who's coaching Michigan in this game, anyone? They are demoralized and it's only going to get worse.

Gator Bowl, Jacksonville, FL: Texas Tech -6 vs. Virginia.
No bet
I know nothing about these teams.

Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA: USC -13.5 vs Illinois
Anytime you get this many points, logic says take them. The winner will be happy if they win by 1 point. The high point spread backs up my claim elsewhere that The Big 10 shouldn't get this slot, Missouri should have. Last time Illinois went to the Rose Bowl in 1984 they lost to UCLA 45-9. Losing 35-14 in this game would surprise no one. However, it's been that kind of a year for upsets. As I said before, Illinois just might win this. They have a double threat quarterback. The Trojans have a bad recent history against that weapon. Probably a good game not to bet on, but hell, 13.5 points in a fluke year says take them.

Sugar Bowl, New Orleans, LA: Georgia - 7.5 vs. Hawaii
Long live Cinderella! If anyone deserves to be crowned National champ, it's Hawaii if they win this. Not their fault the other big teams couldn't go undefeated. Obviously this year proves once and for all the failure of the BCS and the need for a playoff. Hawaii needs to win this for the small schools. One will play and win a playoff someday, and they can thank Boise St. last year, and Hawaii this year for setting into motion a change.

Fiesta Bowl Glendale, AZ: Oklahoma - 7.5 vs. West Virginia
Had the Mountaineers not choked against Pitt, they'd be in the BCS finale. Now, they are in over their heads with little to prove. Oklahoma, on the other hand, is playing great ball. A big win here could get them next years' preseason #1 ranking. Were there a playoff this season, they might just take it all.

Orange Bowl, Miami, FL: Virginia Tech -3.5 vs. Kansas
The Jayhawks were in the BCS hunt until the end. This is a rare big bowl game for them. I feel their program is improving.

BCS Title Game: New Orleans, LA: LSU -4 vs. Ohio State.
This game shouldn't have been allowed. I have said what needed to be said elsewhere. However, I don't make the rules....LSU was the preseason #2 and logically, they just might be the best team in the country. However, they are matched in this game with neither Oklahoma nor USC. Last year, Ohio State with a superior team than this year choked big time in the BCS finale. Naturally, the Big 10 is overrated. Of course the game has to be played and OSU can earn much respect by winning this duel. However, I feel the odds are against it. The Tigers should have their way with the Buckeyes. They may not win by as much as Florida did last year, but they should dominate....

So, there are my picks. Bet at your own risk whether you agree with me or not. I'll wager a mythical $100 on each game, let's see how I do. I picked 4 favorites and 4 underdogs. I'll also place a hypothetical $100 wager on each of the 9 underdogs, and see how that stacks up, individually and combined.

Please make your own picks, comments, and mythical bets also. thanks. Best results posted vs. the spread will get 1000 meanlingless rep points from me.

[thecowboy]

Michigan will lose, almost without a doubt. Not only is there the coaching thing, but we've never been able to stop a running quarterback effectively. This running quarterback also happens to be the heisman winner.

[adrenaline]

Wisconsin will win. I dont really care about the rest..

[Jabooty_3]

for not following the sports you put a lot of effort into this.....

[Axenos1]

Wisconsin will win.

Werd. Go Bucky!

Also, I'd like to point out that the Big 10 is in fact underrated, Ohio State will win the National Championship, and it will be very satisfying to see Illinois beat those preening sissies at USC.

[michaeljohn]

for not following the sports you put a lot of effort into this.....
thanks. I am here to generate posts. this year of college football caught my eye with all the upsets and so on...kind of hard to ignore. Some smart people made or will make a lot of money this year with the underdogs. Some people lost their shirts.
Werd. Go Bucky!

Also, I'd like to point out that the Big 10 is in fact underrated, Ohio State will win the National Championship, and it will be very satisfying to see Illinois beat those preening sissies at USC.
I remember you from this thread last season:

http://forums.webrats.com/thread122047.html

Also, your reply, of course!

I'll never understand how we can have three teams in the top 10 and people still give the Big 10 no credit. I will admit, I don't know what the hell happened to Michigan, but my Badgers showed up like I knew they would. And I know none of you really believe the Gators can hang with the Buckeyes. THE Ohio State in a blow out.
Yeah, OSU had a blowout on the first play, a kickoff return for a TD. After that, they had their overrated asses handed to them unlike any "Number 1" team ever had before.

well, you never posted again in that thread, so unless your new predictions come true, I suspect we have seen the last of you this year.

the reason why the Big 10 is proven to be overrated has been given by me many times. here it is again, so you know.

1) Eastern Sports bias. Most people who vote are in the east. It has existed as long as we have had polls and until demographics bring on new voters representing the true picture of where people are in the USA, it's going to remain. Its days are numbered.
2) Demographics of where the young players are. The best states for high school football talent are California, Texas, and Florida. The south is growing. I suspect many more of those states have also passed up Big 10 states talent wise. Sorry, the South and Western Schools get the best and the most of these players. Big 10 get some, but last I saw, they recruit locally and heavily.

There was a time when the Big 10 was the dominating conference. However, national demographic changes have ended that. Look at the early Rose Bowl matchups vs. the Pac 8, or whatever it was called before that. The Big 10 won almost all of them. Come the 1960's, the situation reversed, and the West has dominated. Matter of fact, they have taken out a large number of supposedly unbeatable Big 10 teams on New Years' Day.

[Axenos1]

I was wrong about Ohio State last year and that's fine. My expertise lies more heavily in Pro Football and may be indicated by my championship appearance in each and every Webrats Fantasy Football league this year and my wins in three of those four games.

That said, let's address your arguments:

I don't follow your point about an "Eastern Sports bias." The Big 10 is comprised of predominantly midwestern teams. These are teams with smaller TV markets, who are harmed by the fact that East AND West coast teams receive a greater deal of media attention.

Your second point is certainly valid. High School Football is bigger in the south, and those teams have first crack at the recruits. But the best players don't always make the best teams. Take a look at Miami and FSU the last few years. These once perennial powerhouses almost always have high numbers of players drafted, but they've been out of power for a while. It is also worth pointing out that many of these teams you favor specialize in so called "skill position" players while the Big 10 has long been a quality source, if not the best source, of lineman and linebackers. The flashy players get all the attention and therefore the rankings. But the plain fact is that the big guys win games.

In this era where the top brass and casual observers who make up the majority of fans are obsessed with scoring it's easy to dismiss teams that win with solid defense and strong run games, teams like one might find in the Big 10. But serious fans understand that there's more to it than who has the fastest guys. It's about building a team, utilizing the talent you have, playing sound football, and making sure your guys don't end up being ruled academically ineligible for your bowl game because your team's combined IQ is lower than it's combined 40 time.

Call me crotchety, call me a curmudgeon, call me what you will. Old school football still wins games and will continue to do so whether it's popular or not. And let's face it, the ranking are a popularity contest. So, the Big 10 will continue to be underrated, and it will continue to win a lot of games, and it will continue to produce top talent in the NFL, and those of us with a deep understanding of the game of football will continue to have to explain why our fossilized ways and our mummified coaches maintain a high level of success.

And if my predictions are wrong, that's fine too. I think the BCS is for shit and that a playoff system needs to be put in place. Then stupid things like polls will have less of an effect and we can see who really knows how to win a championship, instead of a meaningless commercial-fest a month after everyone has stopped playing.

You'll never see the last of me, and you'll never see the last of of us in the "overrated" Big 10. Until the game of football goes the way of basketball and hockey, you'll never "see the last of" those who truly love this sport, the Greatest Sport in the World.

[michaeljohn]

Hey, great reply. I can be a bit of an e-thug....I just have this uncanny memory and pulled out that old thread...

honestly, I have nothing against the big 10. I only dislike 2 teams in all of sports, and that's documnented. The New York Yankees because of that primadonna George Steinbreener, and the arrogant Dallas Queerboys. My favorite team in college football is USC, but I know they can't win every year and their great run over the last several seasons will end sooner than later. I even am picking against them this week, even though logic and tradition says they will roll. I have no money on the game and really, a win gives them confidence next year and a loss wakes them up. Since they can't be number 1, they have nothing to lose. I guess Oklahoma is in a similar situation, but a win here is more important. I really think they will be the team to beat next year.

As far as Wisconsin goes, yeah, I picked against them because of my bias, but I know they are a decent team. All Big 10 teams are, I just don't think they are the elite. However, they did win last year in a bowl and I know nothing about Tennessee....I remember they were a real powerhouse about 10 years ago when Ron Dane was on the squad.

I got tired of pro football years ago, just no time. I stay tuned in some form to college. What I like about it is the teams never relocate, the players don't get traded, and they give their all. See, they aren't pro yet and playing well now is key to a pro contract. They only lose players to graduation and early pro jumps. However, a fresh batch is introduced every year. The rivalries are fun to see.

Yeah, the BCS is shit. It was supposed to fix the problem with the polls. There, if you were going to lose a game, lose it early. I saw a team win an opener against another. The former had one loss, mid season. The latter won the rest of their games and got the number 1 ranking at seasons' end, despite the fact they lost the head-to-head game with the final #2. It was injustices like that that led to the BCS, but a playoff is what really makes sense. It will happen eventually. This is why we should all be pulling for Hawaii. See my BCS is Bull Crap Shit thread.

[Jabooty_3]

I got tired of pro football years ago, just no time. I stay tuned in some form to college. What I like about it is the teams never relocate, the players don't get traded, and they give their all. See, they aren't pro yet and playing well


it is becoming more common for guys to transfer nowadays for playing time

[Axenos1]

Don't worry. I've been accused of being a troll or internet tough guy more than once. In my case it's because I have a degree in English and I wield my rhetorical ability alternately like a katana or a club. Some people engage me, some get defensive. I mean no personal offense, but I love to argue, and when I actually have an opinion, I get aggressive.

I agree with Booty, and I also appreciate the reasonable reply addressing my points. Usually my long posts elicit a snide comment or a simple "fuck you."

As for the BCS, I once started a thread expressing my dislike and confusion, something to the effect of "WTF College Football". The NFL has a system that works and it would be very easy to work from that model.

If you really want to get into the college vs. Pro discussion, We can go down that road, but I'd suggest starting another thread, at which point I'll post something when I'm significantly more sober. Which reminds me, Happy New Years everybody! Let's hope the Bowl games tomorrow are interesting enough to distract everyone from their hangovers.

Also, just to set the record straight, I also hate The Yankees and Cowboys, but to that list I have to add the Patriots, the Bears, the Vikings, Barry Bonds, Terrell Owens, Drew Rosenhaus, Chris Collinsworth, Sean Salisbury, the NFL Competition Committee, and to a lesser extent Notre Dame, USC, Michigan, Illinois, and Minnesota. These are rivalries and people I view as cheaters, prima donnas, sissies, assholes, idiots, and people who are bad for their respective sports. The Lions are not included because they always suck, same goes for a few of the Big 10 teams. Arguments about this will do no good as these are my personal opinions. Plus, it's difficult to argue with fact. =)

[michaeljohn]

Well, I am losing my ass. At least I would be if I was betting. January 1 games, I picked one spread correctly, 4 not.

+$100
-$440
-$340

As far as the underdog bets go, 2 covered the spread. If anyone told me one Big 10 team was going to win, my first guess would be Wisconsin, my second Illinois. lol, I am sure many people lost the farm betting on Florida. Great game Michigan!

System 2, taking only the underdog.
+$200
-$440
-$240

Total loss combining both systems:
$580.

[michaeljohn]

well, I lost interest in this due to lack of participation. I picked 3 of 8 correct against the spread and 4 of the 9 underdogs covered the spread. Probably anyone who is a fan could have done better than I did.

Final AP polls place LSU at 1, Georgia at 2, USC at 3, Missouri at 4, and Ohio State at 5. BCS standings will come later. Who is really number 1? Depends on who you ask I suppose. Kansas with their one loss did get a couple of first place votes, so I guess they have a gripe too, even though they came 7th.

My last college football thread for this season. I won't make another, but will participate perhaps in any that come or stay active. I think the BCS is set to stand as is for another year, then it must be renewed, or changed...Hopefully to a playoff.